Energy Intelligence - ESA, tuned for the transition

From fossil to future, planned

Tech scouting, techno-economics, pathway analysis, and transition roadmaps - four agents that turn the fossil-to-sustainable transition from a vendor pitch into a board decision. Built for refiners, oil & gas majors, utilities, and aviation fuel producers.

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SAF, solar, hydrogen, storage CAPEX & OPEX modeling LCOE / IRR / payback 47+ pathway library Tax-credit & regulator aware ESG-grade reporting Built on Adya ESA
Trusted by refiners, utilities, and aviation fuel producers

Where transition planning gets real

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Why Adya Energy Intelligence

Vendor pitches end. Math begins.

Most transition decisions get stuck at the same place: a stack of vendor decks, contradictory feasibility studies, and a finance team that can't compare them on equal terms. Energy Intelligence runs the same scout, model, scenario, and roadmap loop ESA runs - tuned for the parameters energy actually cares about.

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Project - SAF transition / 180kbpd Live
Tech Scout - 47 pathways indexed
Techno-economics - LCOE modeled per pathway
Pathway Analysis - 6 scenarios converged
Transition Roadmap - board pack drafting
One platform, one model

ESA's framework, tuned for the energy transition

The same four-agent loop that powers Enterprise Strategy - scout, research, analyze, strategize - tuned for the parameters energy decisions hinge on: feedstock, CAPEX, LCOE, tax credits, emissions, regulator filings.

Pathway claim - HEFA SAF

CAPEX $2.1-2.6B for 180kbpd HEFA conversion[1]; LCOE $1.85/L at 80% UCO feedstock[2].

Eligible for 45Z & SAF GREET bonus credits[3].

[1]IEA Bioenergy 2025 Outlook, p.42
[2]Argonne SAF GREET model v1.4
[3]IRS 45Z guidance, Aug 2025
AGP - every number, sourced

Modeled on the math, not the pitch

Every CAPEX number, LCOE estimate, and credit eligibility is anchored to a citation - IEA, Argonne, IRS guidance, OEM filings. AGP enforces sourcing as a precondition to output. Vendor-marketing math doesn't make it through.

Pathway compare - LCOE $/L
47 indexed
HEFA $1.85 ATJ $2.40 FT-SPK $3.10 e-SAF $4.80 $1 $5
Cheapest at scale: HEFA, by 24%

47 pathways, side-by-side

SAF, solar, hydrogen, biogas, storage, e-fuels - ranked on common units. LCOE, IRR, payback, emissions per MWh, feedstock risk. Vendor PDFs lined up against shared math, not different ones.

Scenario memory - carbon-price sensitivity
Scenario #1 Scenario #240 - converges in minutes

Memory across pathways, sites, scenarios

Every model run, every assumption, every sensitivity stays in shared memory. The 240th scenario reuses everything the agent learned across the first 239 - converging in minutes, not weeks of consultant rebuilds.

Inside Adya Energy Intelligence

Four agents, end-to-end transition planning

Tech Scout surfaces what's working. Techno-economics models the math. Pathway Analysis ranks the options on hard numbers. Transition Roadmap turns the result into a board-ready plan with capital allocation.

1 - Tech Scout Agent

What's working at scale, right now

Continuously scans SAF pathways, solar PV chemistries, hydrogen production routes, battery storage, biogas, and e-fuels. Tracks pilots, vendor capacity, regulatory filings, and tax-credit eligibility. Outputs a technology landscape with TRL ratings and feedstock dependencies - not a vendor pitch deck.

Parallel scan: papers, patents, pilots, vendor filings
TRL maturity tracking per pathway
Tax-credit eligibility (45Q, 45V, 45Z, IRA)
Feedstock & supply-chain dependency mapping
See the Tech Scout agent in detail
2 - Techno-economics Agent

CAPEX, OPEX, LCOE - on common units

Builds a financial model per pathway, anchored to current commodity prices, OEM filings, and tax-credit guidance. CAPEX intensity by site type. OPEX broken into feedstock, labor, O&M, utilities. LCOE, IRR, NPV, payback - with sensitivities baked in. Every input cites its source.

CAPEX modeling: brownfield vs greenfield, by site type
OPEX broken out: feedstock, labor, O&M, utilities
LCOE / IRR / NPV / payback per pathway
Sensitivity: carbon, feedstock, fuel-price, FX
See the Techno-economics agent in detail
3 - Pathway Analysis Agent

Side-by-side scenarios on hard numbers

Runs the full transition scenario set in parallel. Site-specific feasibility (geography, grid connection, feedstock access, water, port). Emissions trajectory modeling. Risk-adjusted comparison across cost, time-to-market, and regulatory exposure. Output: a ranked shortlist with sensitivities - not a vendor preference.

Multi-pathway scenario modeling, run in parallel
Site feasibility: feedstock, grid, water, port
Emissions trajectory modeling vs SBTi targets
Risk-adjusted ranking across cost, time, regs
See the Pathway Analysis agent in detail
4 - Transition Roadmap Agent

From shortlist to board-ready transformation plan

Turns the winning pathway into a phased plan: milestones, capital allocation, EPC sequencing, workforce transition, regulator pre-filings, and lender briefing materials. Outputs a board pack and an implementation backlog - not a slide deck.

Phased milestone plan: FEED -> EPC -> commission -> ramp
Capital allocation across phases & financing windows
Workforce transition & reskilling plan
Regulator pre-filings & lender briefing pack
See the Transition Roadmap agent in detail

Built for the boardroom. Backed by the model.

An energy transition plan that the board will sign, the lender will fund, and the regulator will accept. Sourced math, ranked pathways, phased capital - all in one platform, all reviewable.

Refinery to SAF

How a 180 kbpd refiner scoped its SAF transition in 6 weeks

Integrated downstream 180 kbpd SAF mandate $2.8B CAPEX
47
Pathways evaluated on common math
$2.8B
CAPEX scenarios modeled to LCOE
18mo -> 6wk
Decision cycle compression
3
Scenarios escalated to board
The diagnosis

SAF mandate by 2027. Five vendor decks. Zero apples-to-apples math.

Each vendor sized CAPEX, OPEX, and credits differently. Strategy team consumed 18 months reconciling. Board still asking the same questions in cycle 3.

The intervention

All four agents on the same project, same model, same sources.

Tech Scout indexed 47 pathways. Techno-econ ran each on common LCOE/IRR. Pathway Analysis ranked under 6 sensitivities. Roadmap agent wrote the board pack.

What changed

From "another study" to capex approval in one quarter.

Strategy team moved from reconciliation to judgment calls. Board approved Phase 1 capex in cycle 1. Lender briefing started week 7.

"Five vendors had us comparing apples to oil drums. The agent put every pathway on the same LCOE math, with sources I could send straight to my CFO. We approved capex in cycle one."

VP Strategy & Transformation
Integrated downstream major - 180 kbpd
Built on Adya Platform

The defensible IP behind every model run

Adya Energy Intelligence isn't a chatbot wrapped around a feasibility study. It runs on the same proprietary infrastructure that powers ESA - AGP, MAN, ESM, and AI-ELT - the moat that lets it produce numbers a CFO will accept and a regulator will sign off on.

AGP - every CAPEX, LCOE, and credit cited at source
MAN - runs Scout, Econ, Pathway, and Roadmap in parallel
ESM - every scenario, every assumption, kept in shared memory
AI-ELT - ingests OEM filings, IEA, IRS, GREET, internal models
Explore the Adya platform architecture
Boardroom & regulator-grade

What your CFO, your CISO, and your sustainability lead will ask for

Adya Energy Intelligence runs inside your security boundary. Every pathway, every assumption, every sensitivity is logged and exportable. Outputs map cleanly to lender, regulator, and SBTi-aligned reporting.

SOC 2
in flight
ISO 27001
roadmap
GDPR
ready
ISO 50001
energy mgmt
SBTi
aligned
Resources

Field notes from energy transition projects

Ready to plan

Run your transition on hard numbers

Tech scouting, techno-economics, pathway analysis, and a board-ready roadmap - on common math, with sources you can send to the CFO. Get started with a 6-week pilot framed around your highest-CAPEX transition decision.

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30-day pilot - no credit card required - sourced math on every output.

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